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The Krest Test · The full teardown
We took it to Krest.

It made the most of anything we tested. The teardown asks whether the sophistication earned it, or the cheapness did.

A 30% a year return demands an explanation. Was it the six clever metrics working together, or simply raw cheapness bought aggressively? We opened it up, and the answer reframes how you should think about elaborate value screens.

Educational6 min readPart two of two

Two comparisons frame everything. A single cheapness ratio, our Acquirer's Multiple, made about 20% a year. This six metric composite made 30%. And the same composite with a momentum filter added, our Trending Value, made 22%. So stacking cheapness metrics helped enormously, and refining them with momentum hurt. Sophistication, here, was good in one direction and bad in the other.

More cheapness metrics genuinely helped

Unlike some multi factor screens that dissolve into noise, this one sorted beautifully and concentration paid: the broad thirty and the tighter cuts all compounded in the high twenties, and the ranking stepped cleanly from expensive to cheap. Six independent measures of cheapness, averaged, cancelled out the flukes that trip up any single ratio, so the composite found genuinely, robustly cheap companies rather than accidentally cheap ones. The extra metrics were not decoration. They were diversification within the value signal itself.

Return by how tightly you held the composite
Full decade return a year · vs Nifty 500 ↗ See it live on Krest
Every cut compounded near thirty percent. A robust, poolable value signal.

A fierce small cap value tilt, with huge alpha

Strip the name off and it is a smaller company tilt, tracking a broad equal weight index at about 0.93. But the excess it added was the largest in this entire series, roughly 8% a year over that closest index, and it beat the market in nearly every five year window. This is not repackaged beta. It is a genuine, large, and durable value premium, harvested by buying the cheapest of the cheap without flinching.

0.93
correlation to a broad equal weight index · a small cap value tilt at heart
+8%
a year of alpha over that index · the largest in the series
−69%
worst fall · the reason so few could actually hold it

And it lives entirely on the economic cycle

For all its sophistication it remains a cheap, cyclical basket, so it rises and falls with the economy. Its median month when growth was expanding was roughly five times its median month when growth slowed. Six metrics chose better cheap stocks; they did nothing to free the strategy from needing a growing India to pay off. This is the engine, and its fuel is the cycle.

Median monthly return by macro backdrop
Top 30 · by direction of growth, inflation and rates
Overwhelmingly stronger when growth rose. A better sorted cyclical is still a cyclical.

What it held, and the worst it would have handed you

Two last checks make the risk concrete: what the basket was actually made of, by company size, and, instead of the single drawdown path, the worst fall you would have suffered no matter which month you started and held for five years.

By company size, share of the basket
Average market cap mix across the decade
Worst fall by the month you happened to start
Maximum drawdown over each five year hold
Every start date, its worst five year drawdown; the dashed line is the median. This is the fall you had to be able to sit through, wherever you came in.

Buy cheap, six ways, and hold your nerve

The teardown lands on a clean rule. Layering measures of cheapness works, because it finds truer bargains; layering in momentum, at least here, did not. So the best version of this idea is the fierce, pure one: score cheapness every way you can, buy the cheapest broadly, and then do the only hard part, which is holding a portfolio of hated small companies through a near 70% fall. The metrics are easy. The nerve is everything, and it is the one thing no screen can supply.

And you can strip it back yourself

Drop metrics one by one, add a momentum or quality filter, cap the size or the cyclicality, and watch what each change does to the return and the ride. The only way to find the value screen you could actually hold is to build it and live with its worst year on the page.

So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.

KREST TESTED · RUN ON REAL HISTORY ·
Method mark
Krest Tested
We took the Value Composite apart, metric by metric and cut by cut, on a decade of Indian data. The rigour is ours; the verdict is yours.

Free · no account needed

Test before you trust.

Don't take our word for any of it. Every figure in this teardown came from a few clicks on Krest, and each is a click from the full, live analysis. Reading and exploring is free.

More Krest Research

For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.

Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.

Figures reflect O'Shaughnessy's Value Composite (a six factor cheapness composite, market cap above ₹500 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. Concentration, closest index and regime figures computed across all rolling windows. Described in What Works on Wall Street.

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