Momentum crashes because it buys junk. Bolt a quality filter on, and it becomes a strategy you could actually hold.
Pure momentum made the biggest returns we tested and fell the hardest, because it chases whatever has spiked, substance be damned. This screen keeps the momentum idea but insists the winners also be genuinely profitable. It gave back some return, and bought a far calmer, more owneable ride.
Rank companies by their twelve month strength, exactly like momentum, but only consider the ones earning a healthy gross profit on their assets. The result made about 16% a year against the market's 13.9%, turning ₹10 lakh into roughly ₹43 lakh. That is less than raw momentum's ₹73 lakh, and giving up that much return needs justifying. The justification is the ride.
The quality brake made the crashes noticeably gentler
This is the point of the whole exercise. Where unfiltered momentum plunged about 67% at its worst, insisting on real profitability cut that to roughly 50%. Still a serious fall, but a materially more survivable one. The junk that pure momentum loves, the story stocks that spike and vanish, is exactly what implodes in a downturn. Screening it out did not eliminate the risk, but it took the sharpest edge off the crashes, which for most investors is the difference between holding on and bailing out.
And it owned a completely different kind of company
Look at what the filter changed. Raw momentum's basket is a rotating cast of whatever is hot: micro caps, commodities, story stocks. This one leaned into steady, profitable growers, software and services names like Coforge, Zensar and Newgen, held for years rather than weeks. More than a quarter of the money sat in consumer facing businesses and technology, not the speculative fringe. Same momentum idea, an entirely more respectable portfolio.
A big number, still spread across uneven years
The tamer ride did not make the strategy tame. Started in the wrong month you could still lose a third of your money in a year. But watch it across longer holds and the profitability filter's steadying hand shows: the swings are narrower than raw momentum's, and the odds of beating the market climb the longer you stay.
Slower on paper, easier in life
Quality Momentum is the sensible cousin in the family. It will never post the eye watering numbers of raw momentum, and on a spreadsheet that looks like a loss. But investing is not done on a spreadsheet, and a strategy you can actually hold through a 50% fall beats a better one you abandon at 67%. The lesson is a general one: the best version of an idea is often not the highest returning version, but the highest returning version you will still be holding when it matters. That is a question only you can answer, and worth answering before you start.
So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.
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Every figure on this page came from a few clicks on Krest. See this exact analysis live and interactive, or point the same test at any strategy you have ever believed.
For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.
Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.
Figures reflect a quality momentum screen (12 month momentum among companies ranked on gross profit to assets, positive net profit, market cap above ₹1,000 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. Combining momentum with quality is associated with Robert Novy-Marx and AQR research.
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