Pair two factors that hate each other and the ride is supposed to smooth out. In the one moment that mattered, it did not.
Combining value and momentum is one of the most celebrated ideas in quantitative investing: two edges that rarely fail at the same time, so together they should give a steadier climb. On a decade of Indian data the blend earned a fine return. But the promised protection went missing exactly when you would have wanted it most.
Rank every company on both how cheap it is and how strongly it has been rising, and buy the ones that score well on the pair. The blend made about 18% a year against the market's 13.9%, turning ₹10 lakh into roughly ₹58 lakh. Year to year it was indeed steadier than either factor on its own, the two edges taking turns as advertised. The everyday diversification was real. It was the emergency kind that failed.
The blend did sort, and it did win
Give the theory its due. Ranking stocks by the combined score produced a clean order, cheaper and stronger names beating expensive and weak ones, with a rank correlation of about −0.92. And in ordinary years the pairing behaved just as Asness promised: when value stumbled, momentum often carried, and the reverse. As a way to earn a factor premium with fewer white knuckle years, it worked.
But the crash protection never arrived
Here is where the elegant theory met a hard market. The whole appeal of pairing uncorrelated factors is that they should not both collapse together. Yet when the market broke, this blend fell about 72% from its peak, as deep as pure value and far deeper than the index. In the panic, cheap stocks and strong stocks sold off side by side, and the diversification that had smoothed the quiet years evaporated in the loud one. Correlations, as the old line goes, go to one exactly when you need them apart.
A steadier climb, but not the safety net it promised
Combining value and momentum is a genuinely good idea, and this test does not overturn it. Year in and year out, the blend really was calmer than either factor alone, and it beat the market handsomely. But if you bought it for the crash insurance, read the drawdown again. Factor diversification smooths the ordinary bumps and does very little about the once a decade cliff, because in a true panic almost everything falls together. Know which kind of protection you are actually buying, because the difference only shows up on the worst day, when it is too late to learn it.
So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.
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For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.
Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.
Figures reflect a value and momentum blend (earnings yield, price to book and 12 month momentum, positive EBIT, market cap above ₹1,000 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. The value and momentum combination is associated with Cliff Asness and AQR.
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