Krest
See it live →
The Krest Test · Trending Value
We took it to Krest.

Eleven rules, six measures of cheapness, one momentum filter. It landed on the same stocks a single number found.

This is the most elaborate screen we have tested: a whole battery of value metrics, refereed by momentum. It worked, turning ₹10 lakh into about ₹73 lakh. The question the sophistication invites is whether all eleven rules earned their keep, or whether one line of cheapness would have taken you to nearly the same place.

Educational7 min readNifty 500 · 2016 to 2026
₹10 lakh, run through the value machine since 2016
Growth of the portfolio · vs Nifty 500
Top decileTop 30Top 10Nifty 500

Score every company on price to book, price to earnings, price to sales, earnings yield, cash flow yield and dividend yield, all at once, keep the cheapest tenth, and among those buy the ones already climbing. The result was one of the strongest in this series: about 22% a year against the market's 13.9%, roughly ₹73 lakh from ₹10 lakh. Eleven rules of genuine sophistication. And they worked. The interesting question is what they actually bought.

The composite genuinely sorted

First, the good news: unlike some multi factor screens, this one ranked stocks with real skill. Line the market up by the composite score and returns rise cleanly from the expensive end to the cheap, a rank correlation of about −0.89. Layering six value measures did not muddy the signal; it produced a genuinely ordered result. Sophistication, here, was not just for show.

Return by the composite score, expensive to cheap
Full decade return a year · ten buckets · D10 = cheapest and trending
Best bucketNifty 500
A clean staircase from expensive to cheap. Rank correlation about −0.89.

But it walked you to the same commodity stocks as one line

Now the deflating part. For all its machinery, the portfolio it built was deeply familiar: Oil and Natural Gas, GHCL, Vedanta, Gujarat Narmada, the same energy and materials cyclicals that a single cheapness number picked in our Acquirer's Multiple test. Over a third of the money sat in commodities, another fifth in energy. Six value metrics and a momentum overlay, and cheapness still dragged you to the same unloved corner of the market. The elaborate machine and the simple one shared a soul.

The stocks it kept buying
Share of yearly rebuilds each name survived
Where the money sat · average sector weight
By company size, share of the basket

And it charged the same steep entry fee

The shared soul came with a shared bill. Like every deep value screen here, this one fell hard, about 72% from its peak, roughly twice the index. All the metric stacking in the world did not soften the ride, because the ride is a property of what you own, not how cleverly you chose it. Cheap cyclicals crash together whatever the screen that gathered them.

How far below its own peak it fell
Drawdown · top 30 · vs Nifty 500
Trending ValueNifty 500
22%
a year for the top 30 · the index made 13.9%
87%
of five year holds beat the index · a reliable edge
−72%
worst fall from the peak · complexity did not soften it
The full teardown

The overview shows the result. In the deep dive we test whether the six metrics beat any one of them alone, whether the momentum tie breaker did real work, and what this composite is once you strip the name off. Short version: a very good deep value screen, dressed up.

Read the full teardown

Elaborate on the page, familiar in the portfolio

Trending Value is a genuinely good strategy, and a genuinely humbling one. Its eleven rules did sort cleanly and did beat the market by a wide margin, so the sophistication was not wasted. But it did not conjure a different kind of portfolio. It found the same cheap, cyclical, unloved businesses that one honest cheapness ratio finds, and it demanded the same iron stomach to hold them. The lesson is not that complexity is useless. It is that complexity mostly refines an idea rather than replacing it, and you should always know which simple idea you are really betting on underneath.

So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.

KREST TESTED · RUN ON REAL HISTORY ·
Method mark
Krest Tested
We ran Trending Value through the test on a decade of Indian data, metric by metric. The rigour is ours; the verdict is yours.

Free · no account needed

Test before you trust.

Every figure on this page came from a few clicks on Krest. See this exact analysis live and interactive, or point the same test at any strategy you have ever believed.

For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.

Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.

Figures reflect O'Shaughnessy's Trending Value screen (a six factor value composite, then six month momentum, with positive net profit and free cash flow, market cap above ₹500 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. Described by James O'Shaughnessy in What Works on Wall Street.

Krest · mykrest.com